A Whim

I have been observing this so called guru trader on stocks, commodities and the like for a long time. He has been posting on his opinions and his predictions regularly and has amassed a certain following due to his high accuracy. For the past 5 years or so which I have been observing, he has been daring to predict what his views are, rather than go on a ‘hindsight’ basis. This is something which someone with little confidence or little knowledge dare to do.

Of course, he is human and not perfect. He makes mistakes sometimes which is understandable. After all this time, I decided to take action and follow one of his prediction without doing any homework. I did told my friend that too, since he followed that guy in the past too. No idea if he still does. My friend did told me that people who knows how to earn money would earn quietly. Only half-skilled people would come out and give seminars to earn money. That I agree, and said that this supposed guru does not give seminars but put his advice up for free, to which he replied ‘free is worse’. Naturally he warned me to be careful, which I would normally agree in my normal mindset.

Maybe it is the business which has been getting worse. Maybe I am itching to touch the stock market after all this time. I lost quite a sum of money few years back and told myself I would never touch the stock market again. I came out with an excuse for myself:

  1. That although he has been wrong at times, he dares to make predictions with a high degree of accuracy.
  2. That even if I park my money with an investment agent, he would also pick stocks on which I would have gone along with without doing homework too.
  3. Given the above, I might as well follow the advice of someone with a relative high accuracy since I need to focus on other things than to learn a new trade.

In case anyone wonders, I will post this stock up for everyone to see, since it does not affect me now that I have done what I need to. Creative Technology Ltd (C76) on the Singapore Exchange (SGX). To give a brief history of this company, it was trading at a very high price (I forgot exactly how much but it was $50 or $70 per share) back in the 1990s. Then a series of unfortunate events coupled with poor decisions caused the company to dive down to the just over $1 in 2018. However it has always been around and struggling.

With the new technology they unveiled for their products, prices jumped to and stabilized at more than $6 currently. This guru had said that it will go up to about $15 conservatively or more than $50 if he hit the jackpot. Either way, for good or for bad, I made the move in and bought 1000 shares at $6 per share, without doing any homework.

I am writing this here, because as the intent of this blog goes, I will write about my route to success. I will not write just the fanciful stuff, but also the good and bad decisions to paint the actual situation, to mark one more single minor decision in my path. 1000 shares, if I lose it all, 6000 SGD. If it rises up, it will be another few thousand bucks. Not something to overturn my situation, but the road to success is made up of many steps.

Posted by pencil-leads

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