Another week of no trades.
I queued for Fu Shou Yuan (01448) at 3.73 HKD, but it barely missed my target, having dropped to a low of 3.74 HKD. I decided not to chase. Monday is the ex-dividend date for the year’s biggest dividend. Prices may drop after that, so I cancelled the order at 3.73 HKD and decided to monitor the situation first. Despite its lower earnings, I am still confident in the stock. I am currently writing an article on this, but is slow to publish it as I am busy with other things. I will see if I can publish it within the next 2 weeks.
Gold has started to fall. Gold price at near $3200 has already priced in the expectations of Trump’s tariffs. Because of that, many physical gold has been emptied out from London and moved to New York. However, bullions are not subjected to tariffs. Naturally, price of gold fell from a high of $3167 to near $3000, before rising a little to $3037 at the week’s closing. One particular thing to note is that the stock market has also been crashing down due to Trump’s policy. If the stock market continues to crash, individual and institutional investors may be forced to close their gold longs to cover their position in the stock market, further triggering a drop in price. I do not know how much gold prices will drop, but I will take that as an opportunity to close as many gold shorts as I can. Gotta admit my gold shorts was a mistake which I am hoping to end it well.
Regarding my short term trading, I have decided that trading on the forex platform is not for me. Be it forex, commodity or crypto trading on the platform, a leverage play will kill me in the end. I know all along that I have to play with spot holdings, but I thought if I play with a small enough leverage, indirectly it is the same as playing with spot. The issue is that with sufficient funds in the account, there is always the thought of being able to open one more trade, and that the trade will go bad enough for me to have to top up more funds. And that is how, without realising it, I opened more trades than my account could handle, and when everything went south, I have to keep topping up money. I will move on to the stock market, where I have better results. For short term commodities trading, I will just buy ETFs such as GLD or SLV. These stocks could be lent out to others who want to short to earn some interests too. Right now, I will be closing every trade I can at breakeven price, then withdraw all my money out from the trading platform.
