Swiss Cheese Model

The Swiss Cheese Model is a model used in risk analysis and risk management. In summary, human systems are compared to multiple slices of Swiss cheese which are stacked side by side, each layer having holes of random sizes and positioning. These layers act as a defence against different threats, and a threat will only materialise if the holes are aligned. Therefore, a single point of failure will not cause the system to fail. While there are criticisms to this model, its application ranges from engineering, aviation, computer security and healthcare.

swiss cheese model


It has been some time since I posted a new article, mainly because I am in China now, and for the past few months China has been actively clamping down on VPNs. I do not know much about the technical details, but it has caused my website to be unable to load properly. The root cause has not been resolved, so I am taking a detour to access my site. It has been some time since I have wrote something, hence the article today may be a bit stiff in terms of writing.


Many people often have the perception that they cannot make a mistake, and if a mistake is made they wish they could restart and redo everything (which are often times impossible) or they would go all the way in and follow through with their wrong decisions, hoping the end result would justify everything.

But we are humans, and humans make mistakes. Fortunately, a single point of failure often do not cause the whole task to fail. Indeed, the best results could no longer be achieved, yet it does not mean that a decent result cannot be obtained. We take financial investments for example. Many people often have the tendency to invest heavily in a stock when there is a hype. The AI boom recently has seen many retail investors ‘all in’ their money on related stocks, but we may be starting to see signs of weaknesses. We now identify the different layers of cheese:

  1. Did you do your homework before investment?
  2. Did you put most of your money in?
  3. Did you borrow money to invest?
  4. Did you buy in a hype?

The list can go on but we will stop at 4. After identifying the risks, we need to ask ourselves how big each of the risks are and if there are ways we can patch up the holes. The more holes we patch, the lower the risk of a total failure. The end result may not be the ideal, but even Warren Buffett do not get the ideal results all the time. Our priority should be to first prevent a total collapse of the system (task) and second, to slowly work towards a better result than what we have now. As long as we are still in the game, we can have a chance.

Be it in businesses or in our financial investments or even in other aspects of our lives, we can use the Swiss Cheese Model in our daily lives and for our own risk management. For example, I intend to move around the world and live in different countries. Before stepping out of my home country and moving to a new place, I will need to identify what are the potential risks, how to prevent the whole plan from collapsing and for the holes that come out unexpectedly, to patch them as best as I can. I may not do it perfectly, but I will do as well as I can.

Do each task in your work and in your life well. I have seen many taking a flippant attitude at work and in their own lives, much to their detriment. Doing them with a good attitude will ensure there are lesser holes in the layers of cheese. A single point of failure will seldom kill you. But multiple points of failures will.


็‘žๅฃซๅฅถ้…ชๆจกๅž‹ๆ˜ฏไธ€ๅ€‹็”จๆ–ผ้ขจ้šชๅˆ†ๆžๅ’Œ็ฎก็†็š„ๆจกๅž‹ใ€‚็ฐกๅ–ฎ่ชช๏ผŒไบบ้กž็ณป็ตฑๅฐฑๅฅฝๅƒๅคšๅฑคๆฌก็š„ๅฅถ้…ชไธฆๆŽ’ๅ †็–Šๅœจไธ€่ตท๏ผŒๆฏไธ€็‰‡ๅฅถ้…ช้ƒฝๆœ‰่™•ๅœจไธๅŒไฝ็ฝฎๅ’Œๅคงๅฐไธไธ€็š„ๅญ”ๆดžใ€‚้€™ไบ›ๅฅถ้…ชๅฑคๆ˜ฏไฝœ็‚บไธๅŒๅจ่„…็š„้˜ฒ็ทš๏ผŒ่€Œ็•ถๆฏๅ€‹ๅฑคๆฌกๆœ‰ๅ€‹ๆดžๅฐ้ฝŠ็š„ๆ™‚ๅ€™๏ผŒ้ขจ้šชๅฐฑๆœƒ่ฎŠๆˆ็พๅฏฆใ€‚ๆ‰€ไปฅ๏ผŒๅ–ฎ้ปžๆ•…้šœไธๆœƒๅฐŽ่‡ดๆ•ดๅ€‹็ณป็ตฑๅดฉ็›คใ€‚้›–้€™ๆจกๅž‹ไนŸๆœ‰ไธๅฐ‘ไบบๆ‰น่ฉ•๏ผŒไฝ†ๅปไนŸๅœจๅ„ๅ€‹่กŒๆฅญไฝฟ็”จ๏ผŒไพ‹ๅฆ‚ๅทฅ็จ‹๏ผŒ่ˆช็ฉบ๏ผŒ่จˆ็ฎ—ๆฉŸๅฎ‰ๅ…จๅ’Œ้†ซ่—ฅใ€‚

ๅพˆๅคšไบบๆœ‰ๅ€‹้Œฏ่ชค่ง€ๅฟต๏ผŒ่ฆบๅพ—่‡ชๅทฑไธ่ƒฝ็Šฏ้Œฏใ€‚ไธ€ๆ—ฆ็Šฏ้Œฏ๏ผŒๅฐฑ่ฆ้‡ๆ–ฐๅ†ไพ†(ๅณไพฟๅคงๅคšๆ•ธๆ™‚ๅ€™ๆ˜ฏไธๅฏ่ƒฝ็š„)๏ผŒๆˆ–่€…ๅฐฑ็›ดๆŽฅไธ€้Œฏๅˆฐๅบ•๏ผŒๅธŒๆœ›็ตๆžœๆœ€็ต‚่ƒฝๅˆ็†ๅŒ–ไธ€ๅˆ‡็š„ๆฑบๅฎšใ€‚

ไฝ†ๆˆ‘ๅ€‘ๆ˜ฏไบบ๏ผŒๆ˜ฏไบบๅฐฑๆœƒ็Šฏ้Œฏใ€‚ๆ…ถๅนธ็š„ๆ˜ฏ๏ผŒๅ–ฎ้ปžๆ•…้šœ้€šๅธธๆ˜ฏไธๆœƒๅฐŽ่‡ดไปปๅ‹™ๅพนๅบ•ๅคฑๆ•—็š„ใ€‚็•ถ็„ถ๏ผŒๆœ€็†ๆƒณ็š„็ตๆžœๅทฒๅพ—ไธๅˆฐ๏ผŒไฝ†ไนŸไธไปฃ่กจไธ€ๅ€‹ๅƒๆจฃ็š„็ตๅฑ€ๅฐฑ้ ้›ขๆˆ‘ๅ€‘ไบ†ใ€‚ๆˆ‘ๅ€‘ๆ‹ฟๆŠ•่ณ‡ๅšไพ‹ๅญใ€‚ๅพˆๅคšไบบๆœ‰ๅœจ็‹‚็†ฑ็š„ๆ™‚ๅ€™้‡ๅ€‰็š„ๅ‚พๅ‘ใ€‚ๆœ€่ฟ‘็š„AI็†ฑๆฝฎๅฐฑๆœ‰ๅพˆๅคšๆ•ฃๆˆถ all in ็›ธ้—œ่‚ก็ฅจใ€‚็พๅœจๅทฒ็ถ“้–‹ๅง‹ๆœ‰ไบ›่กฐ้€€็š„่ทก่ฑกไบ†ใ€‚ๆˆ‘ๅ€‘ไพ†็œ‹็œ‹้€™ๅฅถ้…ช็š„ๅนพๅ€‹ๅฑคๆฌกใ€‚

1. ไฝ ๆŠ•่ณ‡ๅ‰ๆ˜ฏๅฆๆœ‰ๅšๅฅฝๅŠŸ่ชฒ๏ผŸ
2. ไฝ ๆ˜ฏๅฆๅทฒ้‡ๅ€‰๏ผŸ
3. ไฝ ๆ˜ฏๅฆๅŠ ไธŠๆง“ๆกฟ๏ผŸ
4. ไฝ ๆ˜ฏๅฆๆ˜ฏๅœจ็†ฑๆฝฎ็š„ๆ™‚ๅ€™ๅปบๅ€‰็š„๏ผŸ

ๅฅถ้…ช้‚„ๆœ‰ๆ›ดๅคšๅฑค๏ผŒไฝ†้€™่ฃกๆˆ‘ๅฐฑๅฏซ4ๅฑคๅš็ฐกๅ–ฎไพ‹ๅญใ€‚่ญ˜ๅˆฅไธๅŒ็š„้ขจ้šช(ๅฅถ้…ชๅฑค)ๅพŒ๏ผŒๆˆ‘ๅ€‘ๅพ—ๅ•่‡ชๅทฑๆฏไธ€ๅฑค็š„ๅฅถ้…ชๆœ‰ๅคšๅคง็š„ๆดž๏ผŒไธฆๅ˜—่ฉฆๅŽปไฟฎ่ฃœใ€‚ไฟฎ่ฃœ็š„ๆดž่ถŠๅคš๏ผŒๅ…จ้ขๅดฉ็›ค็š„ๆฆ‚็އๅฐฑ่ถŠๅฐใ€‚ๆœ€็ต‚็ตๆžœ้›–ไธๆœƒๆ˜ฏๆœ€็†ๆƒณ็ตๆžœ๏ผŒไฝ†ๅฐฑ้€ฃๅทด่ฒ็‰นไนŸไธๆ˜ฏไบ‹ไบ‹้ †ๅˆฉใ€‚ๆˆ‘ๅ€‘็ฌฌไธ€่ฆๅš็š„ๅฐฑๆ˜ฏ้˜ฒๆญขไธ€ๅ€‹ๅฎŒๆ•—็š„ๅฑ€้ข๏ผŒ็ฌฌไบŒๅฐฑๆ˜ฏ็›กๅฏ่ƒฝ็ˆญๅ–ไธ€ๅ€‹ๆฏ”็พๅœจๆ›ดๅฅฝ็š„็ตๆžœใ€‚ๅช่ฆๆฒ’่ขซ่ธขๅ‡บๅฑ€๏ผŒๅฐฑๆœ‰็ฟป็›ค็š„ๆฉŸๆœƒใ€‚

ๅœจ็”Ÿๆ„ไธŠ๏ผŒๆŠ•่ณ‡ไธŠ๏ผŒๅ’Œ็”Ÿๆดป็š„ๆ–นๆ–น้ข้ข๏ผŒๆˆ‘ๅ€‘้ƒฝๅฏไปฅ็”จ้€™ๅ€‹ๆจกๅž‹ๅŽป็ฎก็†้ขจ้šชใ€‚ไพ‹ๅฆ‚ๆˆ‘้›ข้–‹ไบ†ๆˆ‘็š„ๅœ‹ๅฎถ๏ผŒๆƒณๆปฟไธ–็•Œ่ท‘ใ€‚้‚ฃๅœจ่ธๅ‡บๆˆ‘็š„ๅœ‹ๅฎถๅ‰๏ผŒๆˆ‘ๅฐฑๅพ—ๆ‰พๅ‡บๆœ‰ไป€้บผ้ขจ้šช๏ผŒๆ€Ž้บผ้˜ฒๆญขๆ•ดๅ€‹่จˆๅŠƒ็š„ๅคฑๆ•—๏ผŒ่€Œ็ขฐๅˆฐ้ ๆƒณไธๅˆฐ็š„ๅฑ€้ขๆ™‚๏ผŒๅฆ‚ไฝ•็›กๅŠ›่ฃœๆ•‘ใ€‚้›–ไธไธ€ๅฎšๅฎŒ็พŽ๏ผŒไฝ†ๆ˜ฏๆœƒ็›กๅŠ›ใ€‚

ๅพˆๅคšไบบๅœจๅทฅไฝœไธŠๅ’Œ็”ŸๆดปไธŠ๏ผŒ้ƒฝๆ˜ฏ้žๅธธๆททๆ—ฅๅญ็š„๏ผŒๆ—ขไธๅŠชๅŠ›ไนŸไธๆ€่€ƒใ€‚ๆŠŠๆฏไธ€ๅ€‹’ไปปๅ‹™’็”จๅฟƒๅš๏ผŒๅฅถ้…ช็š„ๆดžๅฐฑ่ถŠๅฐ‘ใ€‚ๅ–ฎ้ปžๆ•…้šœ้€šๅธธไธๆœƒๅนนๆމไฝ ๏ผŒไฝ†ๆ•…้šœๅคšไบ†๏ผŒ้ฒๆ—ฉๅ‡บไบ‹ใ€‚

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