Goldman Sachs’ Total Return Swaps

In my last post, I talked about Goldman Sachs’ research report. The report indicated that the software sector was at the bottom of their list in terms of capital intensity. The report had good analysis and sound logic. But to some of us, one question inevitably come into mind: Why would Goldman Sachs be so nice to publish this report instead of capitalising it fully?

Goldman Sachs 2008 CDS Saga

The whole process is more complicated than what I am going to explain here, but for the sake of my readers I am just going to simplify it greatly.

In very simple terms, through credit default swap (CDS), Goldman Sachs profited greatly by betting against the subprime mortgage-backed securities and negotiating CDS deals for clients like Michael Burry. What this means is that Goldman Sachs betted that homeowners would not be able to pay their mortgage and also helped clients to do the same, thereby making another round of profits. When the bubble finally burst, Goldman Sachs and clients like Michael Burry profited greatly.

goldman sachs capitalism

History Repeats Itself Somewhat

History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

On 24 February 2026, Goldman Sachs published a research report hinting that the software sector is a goner. And last week, news has circulated that Goldman Sachs has begun offering clients products known as total return swaps, derivatives that would enable investors to profit if loan prices decline. More specifically and in simple terms, Goldman Sachs is rounding up clients who will bet that software companies will default on their loans.

From houses to IT, from homeowners to software companies, from credit default swaps to total return swaps, everything is just but a change in name and form. The underlying mechanism is still the same.

Question

Now that we know this, how can we take steps to profit from it? I will not answer this question. Readers can ask ChatGPT or whatever AI model you like.


ๅœจๆˆ‘ไธŠไธ€ๅ€‹่ฒผๅญ๏ผŒๆˆ‘่Šไบ†้ซ˜็››็š„็ ”็ฉถๅ ฑๅ‘Šใ€‚ๅ ฑๅ‘ŠๆŒ‡ๅ‡บ่ปŸไปถ่กŒๆฅญๆ˜ฏ้ซ˜็››ๆŽ’่กŒๆฆœไธญ่ณ‡้‡‘ๅฏ†้›†ๅบฆๆœ€ไฝŽ็š„่กŒๆฅญใ€‚ๅ ฑๅ‘Šๅˆ†ๆž็š„ๅพˆๅฅฝ๏ผŒ้‚่ผฏๆธ…ๆ™ฐใ€‚ไฝ†ไธ€ๅฎšๆœƒๆœ‰ไบบๆƒณ๏ผš้ซ˜็››็‚บไป€้บผไธ่‡ชๅทฑๅˆฉ็”จ้€™ไปฝไฟกๆฏ๏ผŒๅ่€Œๅ…ฌ้–‹่ˆ‡็œพ๏ผŸ

้ซ˜็››2008ๅนดไฟก็”จ้•็ด„ไบ’ๆ›ไบ‹ไปถ

ๆ•ดๅ€‹้Ž็จ‹ๆ˜ฏๆฏ”่ผƒ่ค‡้›œ็š„๏ผŒไฝ†้€™่ฃกๆˆ‘ๅฐฑ้žๅธธ็ฐกๅ–ฎ็š„่ฌ›่งฃใ€‚

็ฐกๅ–ฎ่ชช๏ผŒ้€š้Žไฟก็”จ้•็ด„ไบ’ๆ› (CDS)๏ผŒ้ซ˜็››ไธ€ๆ–น้ขๅคงๅŠ›ๅš็ฉบๆฌก็ดšๆŠตๆŠผ่ฒธๆฌพๆ”ฏๆŒ่ญ‰ๅˆธ๏ผŒๅฆไธ€ๆ–น้ขๅˆๅนซๅƒ้บฅๅ…‹.่ฒ็‘ž้€™ๆจฃ็š„ๅฎขๆˆถๅฎ‰ๆŽ’ CDS ไบคๆ˜“ใ€‚่ชช็™ฝไบ†ๅฐฑๆ˜ฏ๏ผš้ซ˜็››่ณญๅฑ‹ไธปๆฒ’่ƒฝๅŠ›ๅ„Ÿ้‚„ๆˆฟ่ฒธ๏ผŒไนŸๆ‹‰ไบ†ไธ€็พคไบบๅ’Œไป–ไธ€่ตท่ณญ๏ผŒๅพž่€Œ็ฒๅˆฉ็ฌฌไบŒๆฌกใ€‚็•ถๆฌก่ฒธๅฑๆฉŸ็ˆ†้–‹็š„ๆ™‚ๅ€™๏ผŒ้ซ˜็››ๅ’Œไป–ๅ€‘็š„ๅฎขๆˆถ้ƒฝๅคงๅคง็ฒๅˆฉใ€‚

ๆญทๅฒ็ธฝๆ˜ฏ็›ธไผผ็š„้‡่ค‡

ๆญทๅฒไธๆœƒ็ฐกๅ–ฎ็š„้‡่ค‡๏ผŒไฝ†ๆœƒ้ฉšไบบ็š„็›ธไผผใ€‚

2026ๅนด2ๆœˆ24ๆ—ฅ๏ผŒ้ซ˜็››็™ผ่กจไบ†ไธ€ๅ€‹ๆš—็คบ่ปŸไปถ่กŒๆฅญ่ฆๅฎŒ่›‹็š„ๅ ฑๅ‘Šใ€‚่€ŒไธŠๅ€‹ๆ˜ŸๆœŸ๏ผŒๅทฒๆœ‰ๆถˆๆฏๅ‚ณๅ‡บ๏ผŒ้ซ˜็››ๅทฒๅœจ็‚บๅฎขๆˆถๆไพ›ไธ€ไบ›ๅซโ€˜็ธฝๆ”ถ็›Šไบ’ๆ›โ€™็š„่ก็”Ÿๅ“๏ผŒ่ƒฝ่ฎ“ๆŠ•่ณ‡่€…ๅœจ่ฒธๆฌพๅƒนๆ ผไธ‹่ทŒๆ™‚็ฒๅˆฉใ€‚ๅˆไปฅ็ฐกๅ–ฎๅ’Œๆ›ดๆบ–็ขบ็š„่ชชๆณ•่งฃ้‡‹๏ผš้ซ˜็››ๆญฃๅœจๆ‰พ้ก˜ๆ„่ณญ่ปŸไปถๅ…ฌๅธๅ„Ÿ้‚„ไธไบ†่ฒธๆฌพ็š„ๅฎขๆˆถใ€‚

ๅพžๆˆฟๅฑ‹ๅˆฐ่ปŸไปถ๏ผŒๅฑ‹ไธปๅˆฐๅ…ฌๅธ๏ผŒๅพžไฟก็”จ้•็ด„ไบ’ๆ›ๅˆฐ็ธฝๆ”ถ็›Šไบ’ๆ›๏ผŒไธ€ๅˆ‡ไธ้Žๆ˜ฏไปฅไธๅŒๅๅญ—ๅ’Œๅฝขๆ…‹ๅ‘ˆ็พๅ‡บไพ†็ฝทไบ†ใ€‚ๅบ•ๅฑค็š„ๆ“ไฝœ้‚„ๆ˜ฏไธ€ๆจฃ็š„ใ€‚

ๅ•้กŒ

็พๅœจๆˆ‘ๅ€‘็Ÿฅ้“้€™ไปฝๆถˆๆฏ๏ผŒๆˆ‘ๅ€‘่ƒฝๆ€Ž้บผ็ฒๅˆฉๅ‘ข๏ผŸ้€™ๅ•้กŒๆˆ‘ไธๅ›ž็ญ”ใ€‚่ฎ€่€…ๅฏไปฅ่‡ชๅทฑๅ•่ฑ†ๅŒ…ๆˆ–่‡ชๅทฑๅ–œๆญก็š„AI่ปŸไปถใ€‚

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