A reader asked how do I go about in choosing stocks that are cheap, safe and of value? The short answer is that I find windows of opportunities that comes along with the big trend.
The process is actually drawn out and unexciting to many, but interesting to me. And it is a partnership between me and the wife. Different people have different methods and considerations for choosing the stocks they want to invest in, and mine is but one of the many paths to Rome, one that is suitable for me.
The wife and I will update ourselves on news from different sources and countries almost everyday. We will also read up and watch Youtube analysis on different political, economical and financial activities. We will then share with each other on what we have learnt on a near daily basis to discuss about it and see if they make sense or not. Often times news are pretty one-sided and many Youtubers do not know what they are talking about too. This allows us to keep up to date with the international state of affairs and domestic situation of a few significant countries, and to renew and upgrade our understanding of these matters where necessary as rules change all the time. For example, it used to be that there is an economic crisis every 10 to 12 years, but the rules of the game changed when Trump took over. Such sharing may not take very long, and often it is just like a 1 or 2 minute conversation.
As mentioned in previous posts, before investing in stocks, I must first look at the country. If the state of affairs in the country is optimistic, then I can proceed to the next step. Else, I will just jump to another country. It is precisely this that when China’s property market collapsed, I knew that their long-condemned stock market may have a brighter future ahead. And when China rolled out a series of policy reforms regarding their financial markets, I believed the opportunity was coming and began work in that. Do note that the timeline of a country and the timeline of a human is way different, so this process is very long even though I summarised it in 2 paragraphs here.
The wife and I will also talk about a wide range of other topics from psychology to geography, pets to survival skills, history to technology. These other topics do not contribute directly to any earning of money, and it primarily serves as different topics to chit-chat about. However, in the process we are constantly building up a larger library of general knowledge in our heads. Whether you are comunicating with others, doing business or investing in a stock market, having a wealth of general knowledge also allows us to sniff out potential opportunities in different sectors. It also gives us the foundation to be able to process certain pieces of news and infer the potential impact. But I got to admit all these are just secondary benefits. The main thing is simply we like to chit-chat about a wide variety of things and the secondary benefits is just an added bonus. I always maintain a curiosity like that of a child, and will find out about things that I come across but know nothing about.
Once I have identified opportunities in a country and while waiting for the right timing, I will identify which are the suitable segments to invest in. For example, I will never invest in the primary industries in Singapore, simply because Singapore is not cut out for it. I will not invest in US dividend stocks, because the 30% dividend tax is a waste of my time. The technological powress of the US as well as their ‘free market’ makes investing in technology companies a very suitable one. China on the other hand, is very good for investing in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) because the SOEs monopolises core resources. The Chinese government’s hand in stabilising the stock market both in a crash and in a bull-run frenzy makes it unsuitable (in my opinion) to invest in stocks with higher volatility such as technology stocks. Instead, consistently reaping off dividends from SOEs dealing with core resources become a very viable path in the Chinese stock market.
So far, the work done above is like the daily preparation for an examination – going through the lectures consistently and doing homework. From here on, the work is like the last burst before the start of an examination. Both are required and without each, you will not be able to score as high as your potential.
Once the country to invest in and its appropriate sectors has been identified, the rest is just choosing which stocks to invest in and deciding when to enter. At this stage, the wife will pour over a very large number of analysis done by different people on the different companies in our targeted sector. This is the first filter, after which she will hand over a list of companies which she thinks we can consider and the reasons for that. I will then take over and take a deeper dive, going into the financial accounts, the relevant government policies, the market outlook, any seasonal cycles if applicable and stuff. At this stage, our daily chit-chat about different things including government policies may at times come in handy and give us an inkling on where to start or what to look out for. For every 1 company which we have decided to invest in, there were many others we have done our homework on and cast away, so whatever we settled for, we have a relatively high confidence. But this also means a fair bit of effort in order to get one stock out to put our money in.
Once a company has been selected, I will then work out the entry price, the intervals for the different entries as well as deciding the amount to pump in at each price level. Generally, from the entry, I will allocate another batch of funds for every 5% drop in price. In essence, once you have correctly identified the opportunities in that country and time it well, chances are most of the companies will do well as long as you do not make a major mistake in the choosing of the stocks. Of course, every stock differs and correctly choosing a company will result in a higher probability that the stock will fare better than the rest.
Those who are observant enough may realise that although my portfolio is earning money, there are also many other companies which did well. For example, the innovative drug sector in the HK/China market are booming, but I have not bought any of them as they do not fit my risk profile which I have decided for HK/China stocks. I also rejected Cambricon Technologies Corp Ltd, which has rose a lot over the past few months as I did not have as much confidence in them as compared to the US technology companies. Of course, the market proved me wrong but it is what it is. One cannot earn beyond his scope of understanding.
In the end, one can say that my strategy is about finding windows of opportunities and then letting the trend sweep me up together along with everyone else who happens to be in it.
ๆ่ฎ่ ๅ๏ผๆๆฏๅฆไฝๆพๅบๅๅฎๅ จๅไฝๅน็ๅนๅผ่ก็ฅจใๅ ็ตฆๅ็ต่ซ๏ผๅ ถๅฏฆๆๆไธป่ฆๆพ็ๆฏ้ขจๅฃใ
ๅฐๅพๅคไบบไพ่ชช๏ผๆดๅ้็จๅ ถๅฏฆๆฏๅพๆผซ้ทไธๆฏ็ฅ็ใไฝๅฐๆๅไบบ่่จ๏ผๆ่ฆบๅพ้่ ปๆๆๆ็ใๆดๅ้็จๆฏๆๅๅจๅญๅ ฑๅ็ๅชๅใ้้้่ทฏๅฐ็พ ้ฆฌ๏ผ่้ๆข่ทฏ็ฎๅๆฏๆ้ฉๅๆ็ใ
ๆๅๅจๅญๅนพไนๆฏๅคฉ้ฝๆ็ไธๅๅๅฎถๅๅช้ซ็ๆฐ่๏ผไนๆๅจYoutubeไธ่ตท็้ๆผๆฟๆฒป๏ผ็ถๆฟๅ็ถ่็ไธๅๅๆใๆๅพๆๅๆฏๅคฉไนๆๅ่จดๅฝผๆญค็ถๅคฉ็ๅฐๆๅญธๅฐ็ๆฑ่ฅฟ๏ผไธฆไธ่จ่ซๆ็ๅฐ็ๆฏๅฆๅ็ๆๆบ็ขบใ็ข็ซๆฐ่ๆๆ้ๆผ็้ข๏ผๅพๅค็ถฒ็ด ไน้ฝๅจ็ๆฏใ้ๆ่ฎๆๅไบ่งฃๅฐๅ้ๅฝขๅขๅๅนพๅ้้ปๅๅฎถ็ๅ ง้จ็ๆณ๏ผๅๆๅจๆๅฟ ่ฆ็ๆๅๅทๆฐๅๆ้ซๆๅ็่ช็ฅใไพๅฆไปฅๅ้ฝๆฏๆฏ10-12ๅนดๅฐฑๆไพไธๆฌก็ถๆฟๅฑๆฉ๏ผไฝๆฏๅทๆฎไธๅฐๅพ๏ผ้ๆฒ็่ฆๅๅฐฑ่ฎไบใๆๅๅไบซ็้็จไธไธๅฎๆๅพ้ท๏ผๅพๅคๆๅไนๅฐฑๅชๆฏ1-2ๅ้็ๅฐ่ฉฑ็ฝทไบใ
ไนๅๆ่ชช้๏ผๅจๆ่ณ่ก็ฅจๅ๏ผๆไธๅฎๆๅ ็ๅ ฌๅธๆๅฑฌ็ๅๅฎถใๅฆๆๆๅฐ่ฉฒๅๅฎถๆๅฐๆจ่ง๏ผๆไพฟๅฏ้ฒ่กไธไธๆญฅใๅฆๅ๏ผๆๅฐฑ่ๆ ฎๅฅ็ๅๅฎถใ็ตๅไปฅไธๆ่ชช็๏ผ็ถไธญๅๆฟๅฐ็ขๆณกๆฒซ็ๆ๏ผๆๆจๆทๅบ่ขซๅพๆฃ็A่กๅ้ๅฏ่ฝๅ ๆไบใ่็ถๅๅฎถๆจๅบไธ็ณปๅ็็ถ่ๅธๅ ดๆน้ฉ๏ผๆไพฟ็ขบไฟกๆฉๆไพไบ๏ผ้จไนๅฑ้็ธ้ๅทฅไฝใ้่ฃกๅพๆณจๆ็ๆฏ๏ผๅๅฎถ็ๆ้็ทๅๆๅ็ๆ้็ทๆฏไธไธๆจฃ็ใ้็ถๆไปฅ2ๆฎต่ฉฑ่ฌ่งฃไปฅไธ้็จ๏ผไฝ้็ฅๅ ถ้็จๆฏ้ๅธธๆผซ้ท็ใ
ๆๅๅจๅญๅนณๆ่ๅคฉๆไนๆ่ๅ็จฎ่ฉฑ้ก๏ผๅพๅฟ็ๅญธๅฐๅฐ็๏ผๅพๅฏต็ฉๅฐ็ๅญๆ่ฝ๏ผๅพๆญทๅฒๅฐ็งๆ็ญ็ญใ้ไบ่ฉฑ้กไธๆ็ดๆฅ่ฎๆๅ่ณบ้ข๏ผๆไนๆฟ่ชไธป่ฆ็ฎ็ๅฐฑๆฏไฝ็บ่ๅคฉ็่ซ่ณใไฝๆฏ้็จไธญๆๅไธๆท็ฉ็ดฏๆๅ็็ฅ่ญๅฒๅใไธ็ฎกๆฏๅไปไบบ่ๅคฉ้ๆฏๅ็ๆ๏ผๅๆ่ ๆฏๆ่ณ่กๅธ๏ผๆๅ่ผๅคง็็ฅ่ญๅฒๅ่ฝ่ฎๆๅๅฐๅ็จฎ่กๆฅญๆฉๆ็ๆ็ฅๆฏ่ผๆๆ๏ผๅๆไนๆ้ซไบๆๅๅฐไธๅไบ็ฉ็่ช็ฅใ็ถ็ถ๏ผ้ไบ้ฝๆฏ้กๅค็ๆถ็ฒ๏ผๆ้่ฆ้ๆฏๅ ็บ่่ไธๅ็่ฉฑ้กๅพๆ่ถฃใๆๆไธ็ดไฟๆไธๅๅๅฐๅญฉไธๆจฃ็ๅฅฝๅฅๅฟ๏ผไธฆไธ้ๅฐไธไบ่งฃ็ไบๅๆๆๅปๅคไบ่งฃใ
็ถๆๅทฒ็ถ็ๆบไบไธๅๅๅฎถ็ๆฉๆ(้ขจๅฃ)๏ผๅจ็ญๅพ ๆๆฉๆ็ๆ๏ผๆๆ็ ็ฉถ่ฉฒๅๅฎถ้ฉๅๆ่ณ็็ดฐๅ้ ๅใไพๅฆๆๆฏไธๆๆ่ณๆฐๅ ๅก็็ฌฌไธ็ขๆฅญ๏ผๅ ็บๆฐๅ ๅกๅฐฑไธๆฏๅนน้ๅ็ๆใๆไนไธๆๆ่ณ็พๅ็ๆถๆฏ่ก๏ผๅ ็บ30%็่กๆฏ็จ ๆฏๅจๆตช่ฒปๆ็ๆ้ใ็พๅ็็งๆๅไปๅ็โ่ช็ฑๅธๅ ดโๆๆฏไปๅ็ๅผท้ ใไธญๅๆฏ้ๅธธ้ฉๅๆ่ณๅไผ๏ผๅ ็บๅไผๅฃๆทไบๆ ธๅฟ่ณๆบ๏ผ่ไธญๅ็ๅๅฎถ้ๅจๅธๅ ดๆๆ ๆๆ็ฉฉๅฎๅธๅ ด๏ผๅจๅธๅ ด็็ๆๆ้ฉ็ถ็ๆฝไธๆๅทๆฐด่ฎๅคงๅฎถๅท้ใๆไปฅๆไธๆๆ่ณไธญๅ้ซๆณขๅ็่ก็ฅจๅ็งๆ่กใ็ฉฉ็ฉฉ็ๅจA่กๅธๅ ดๆถๆฏๆๆฏๆ่ช็บ่ฉฒ่ตฐ็้่ทฏใ
ไปฅไธๆ่ฟฐ็ๅฐฑๅฅฝๅ็บไบ้้ ็้ซ่ๅ็ๆฅๅธธๆบๅ – ่ฝ่ชฒ๏ผๅๅ่ชฒ็ญ็ญใๆๆฅไธไพ่ชช็ๅฐฑ็ญๅๆผ้ซ่ๅ็่กๅบใ่ฆๅๅพๅช่ถ็ๆ็ธพ๏ผๆฅๅธธๆบๅๅ่กๅบ็ผบไธไธๅฏใ
็ถๆ่ณ็ๅๅฎถๅ็ดฐๅ้ ๅๅทฒ็ขบๅฎ๏ผๅฉไธ็ๅฐฑๆฏ้ธๆๆๅชๅฎถๅ ฌๅธๅๆฑบๅฎไป้บผๆๅ้ฒๅ ดใๅจ้ๅ้ๆฎต๏ผๅจๅญไพฟๆๅคง้ๅฐ้ฑ่ฎไธๅ็็ธ้ๅๆ๏ผ้จๅพๅๅๅฏ่ๆ ฎๆ่ณ็่ก็ฅจๆธ ๅฎ่ฝไบค็ตฆๆ๏ผๅๆไนๅ่จดๆ็บไป้บผๅผๅพๆ่ณ้ไบๅ ฌๅธ็็็ฑใ้ๆฏ็ฌฌไธๆฌก็ฏฉ้ธใๆฅ้ๆธ ๅฎๅพ๏ผๆๆไธไธๅๆทฑๅ ฅ็ ็ฉถ – ่ฒกๅ ฑ๏ผ็ธ้็ๅๅฎถๆฟ็ญ๏ผๅธๅ ดๅๆฏ๏ผ้ฑๆ็ญ็ญใๅจ้ๅ้ๆฎต๏ผๆๅๆฅๅธธ่ซ็ไธๅ่ฉฑ้ก๏ผๅ ๆฌๅๅฎถ็ไธ็ณปๅๆฟ็ญๅๆฑบๅฎๅฏ่ฝๆ่ตทๅฐไธไบไฝ็จ๏ผ่ฎๆๅ็ฅ้็ ็ฉถๅฏไปฅๅพๅช่ฃก่ๆ๏ผๆ่ ่ฉฒๆณจๆไบไป้บผใๆๅพ็ฏฉ้ธๅบไพ็ๆฏไธๆฏ่ก็ฅจ๏ผ่ๅพๆๅพๅค็ ็ฉถๅพ่ขซๆพๆฃ็ๅ ฌๅธใ้ไนๆฏ็บไป้บผๆๆฑบๅฎๆๅ ฅ็ๆฏไธๆฏ่ก็ฅจ๏ผๆ้ฝๆฏๆๅพๅคง็ไฟกๅฟใ็ถ็ถ๏ผ้ไนไปฃ่กจไบๅจๆๅ ฅไปปไฝ่ก็ฅจๅ๏ผๆๅ้ฝๆฏ่ฑไบๅพๅคๆ้ๅ็ฒพๅ็ใ
้ๅฎ่ก็ฅจๅพ๏ผๆๅฐฑๆ้ๅง่จ็ฎๅ ฅๅๅนๅไธๅ็่ฃๅๅนๆ ผใๅคง่ดไธ๏ผไปฅๅ ฅๅๅน็บๆบ๏ผๆฏ่ท5%๏ผๆๅฐฑๆๅ้ฒไธๆนใๆฌ่ณชไธ๏ผ็ถ้ธๅฐไบ้ขจๅฃ(ๅๅฎถ็ๆฉๆๅๆๆฉ)๏ผๅช่ฆๆฒๅๅบๅด้็้ฏ่ชค๏ผ่กๅธไธๅคงๅคๆธ็่ก็ฅจ้ฝๆ่ท่่ตท้ฃใ็ถ็ถ๏ผ่ก็ฅจๅๆไธๅ๏ผ้ธไบไธๅๅฅฝ็ๅ ฌๅธ่ฝๆๆดๅคง็ๆฆ็ๆฏๅฅ็่ก็ฅจ้ฃๅพๆด้ซใ
่งๅฏๅๆ้ณ็่ฎ่ ๆ็ผ็พ้็ถๆ็ๆ่ณ็ตๅๅจ่ณบ้ข๏ผไฝไนๆๅพๅคๅ ถไป่ก็ฅจไน้ฝๅจ่ณบ้ขใไพๅฆ๏ผๅตๆฐ่ฅ็่ก็ฅจ้ฝๅๅพๅพๅฅฝ๏ผไฝๆฏๆไธๆฏ่ก้ฝๆฒ่ฒท๏ผๅ ็บไธ็ฌฆๅๆ็บๆธฏ่กๅA่กๆ่จญๅฎ็ๆ่ณ้ขจ้ชๅๅฅฝใๆ็ถๆไนๆ็ตไบ้ๆฎตๆ้ๅคงๆผฒ็ๅฏๆญฆ็ด๏ผๅ ็บ็งๆๆ้ๆฏ็ธไฟกๆกๅงๅคงๅ็ใ็ถ็ถ๏ผๅธๅ ด่ญๆๆๆฏ้ฏ็ใไบบๆฏไธ่ฝ่ณบไป่ช็ฅไปฅๅค็้ขใ
ๅฐๆๅพ๏ผๅ ถๅฏฆๆๅชๆฏไธๅๅฐ่ๆพ้ขจๅฃ๏ผ็ถๅพ็ซๅจ้ฃ่ฃก่ฎ้ขจๅน่ตทไพ็่ฑฌใไธๆฏๆ้ธ่กๅคๆ่ฝ่๏ผ็ด็ฒนๅฐฑๆฏๅจๆพ้ขจๅฃใ
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Price range: $69.00 through $99.00
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