The US stock market seem resilient, and the AI hype is so strong it might as well be an AI bubble.
Background
The S&P 500, and by extension the US stock market, seems to be never dying, rising up and up despite numerous hits to it. The S&P 500 is now at an all-time high of 6791, bulldozing every negative news and defying every economic logic.
But if we take a look at what made up the S&P 500, we can see that it is heavily overweighted towards the technology companies, almost all of which participated in the AI bubble.
If we do a quick calculation on the above companies, we will see that technology companies in the top 20 made up 39.23% of the entire S&P 500. The S&P 500 which is heavily skewed towards technology is now heavily hyped up by AI. The first impression which many people have when they think about AI may be ChatGPT (Open AI) or Deepseek, but these companies / software sit at the very top of the AI pyramid, which represents a very small segment of the AI hype. Fortunately I have found a diagram representing my view of the pyramid.
Just a side note, I have been saying that energy is the foundation for the future where AI and big data, because energy is needed to run large and complex computations. That is why I am bullish on power companies in the long term.
The first 3 levels of the pyramid are classified as ‘shovels’, where they support but are not directly involved in the development of AI. In the California gold rush from 1848 to 1855, the ones who earned the most money were not the one who dug for gold, but those selling spades to the gold diggers. The AI that the public often associate with are like ChatGPT or Deepseek, standing at the top of the pyramid but supported by the 5 levels below it. In this picture we get an idea that certain big technology companies have businesses spanning across a few layers of the pyramid. Google is one such example, Microsoft another.
Now we are clear with the picture, let us get to the main point.
The AI Bubble
We are familiar with how Nvidia and AMD make record highs. We saw in the news how the rest of the technology companies also had their share prices jumped to insane levels, hence I will not repeat what everyone here knows.
Humans are smart sometimes. We do learn from history at times. The gold rush taught us that selling spades is better than digging for gold. That is why the stock market investors are buying into AMD, Nvidia and a whole load of other companies below the gold digger. But, AI development takes time. It takes a lot of research, effort and money.
For now, OpenAI is still burning money. There is no gold yet.
But despite this, OpenAI found it necessary to continue investing in other companies. Let us look at the chart of money flow given by Bloomberg. This is not something I made up, but reported by a well-known news source.
What happens when there is no gold? The one selling spades invests in the gold digger, the gold digger spends money on the porter, and the porter buys spades from the spade merchant. Look at how Nvidia the spade merchant is right in the centre of the diagram.
Nvidia invests $100 billion in OpenAI. OpenAI purchases $300 billion worth of computing power from Oracle. Oracle spends tens of billions on Nvidia chips to support their demand for computing power. This is just one circle, and the larger picture consists of other well-known companies like Microsoft and AMD. In the modern world where everyone can take part in a company’s business by investing in the stock market, this circular deal creates a scene of prosperity in the AI segment, attracting retailers’ money into the stock market and making them buy at the top while the big players offload their shares at high prices.
- As of 1 July 2025, Oracle CEO Safra Catz offloaded roughly $2.5 billion in company stock.
- As of 1 July 2025, Dell CEO Michael Dell offloaded about $1.22 billion.
- As of 1 July 2025, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos offloaded $737 million.
- Nvidia CEO planned to offload up to 6 million of his shares estimated to be at about $865 million.
- Warren Buffett has cleared off many of his US stock holdings.
Yes, the CEOs did not clear all of their shares, because they cannot. They represent the company. In fact, you can say Jensen Huang cleared less than 1% of his total holdings. But it does not make sense for so many of the tech bosses to sell off if technology and AI is indeed booming. Doesn’t that tell you something? Nobody knows the company better than the CEOs. These are smart people sitting at the top of their companies, and they do not get to where they are by playing house. And if they are selling their shares, I think that should be a warning sign.
Many companies are now trying to do something AI related or forcibly tagged their business to AI, even though it may be nonsensical and not related to their businesses. Ride the hype yo. While there are already certain tangible achievements such as ChatGPT and Sora, it is still far from the hype people dreamt of. It will get there, but not now, and investors are paying for these future expectations which will take many years to realise. The investments both by retailers in the stock market and the big techs through all the deals they inked are too large for the current market’s capability to fulfil. The deals formed by these companies are paper deals anyway, nothing concrete, nothing done.
The AI bubble will burst, and it is about to. When the musical chair stops, the US stock market will come crashing down. And this, may be another opportunity for us to grab. For now, all we need to do is to prepare our bullets in advance, so that we can do our part to ‘save the market’ together with Warren Buffett and be a contributing hero to the society.
็พ่กไผผไน้ๅธธๅ ้ใAI็ฑๆฝฎไนๅทฒ็ถๅฐไบๆณกๆฒซ็ๅฐๆญฅใ
่ๆฏ
ๆจๆฎ500๏ผไน่ณๆดๅ็พๅ่กๅธ๏ผไผผไนๅฐฑๆฏๆไธๆญปใๅณไพฟ่ขซๅคๆฌกๆๆ๏ผๅปไป็ถไธๆทๅพไธ็ฌๅฐไปๅคฉ็6791ๆฐ้ซ๏ผๅฏ่ชชๆฏ็ก่ฆๆๆ่ฒ ้ขๆถๆฏไปฅๅ้ก่ฆไบๆๆ็ถๆฟ้่ผฏใ
ไฝๆฏ็ถๆๅไป็ดฐๆณจๆๆจๆฎ500็็ตๆง๏ผๅฐฑๆ็ผ็พๆๆธๆฏๅด้ๅพๅ็งๆๅ ฌๅธ็๏ผ่้ไบๅ ฌๅธๅคงๅค้ฝๅ่ไบAI็ฑๆฝฎใ
็ถๆๅๅๅ็ฒ็ฅ่จ็ฎ๏ผๅฐฑๆ็ผ็พ๏ผๅจๅ20ๆๅ็็งๆๅ ฌๅธๅฐฑไฝไบๆๆธ39.23%็ๆฏ้ใ้ไปฃ่กจๆๆธๆฏๅด้ๅๅ่ขซAI็ฑๆฝฎๆ่ตทไพ็็งๆๅ ฌๅธใ็ถไบบๅๆๅฐAI๏ผ็ฌฌไธๅฐ่ฑกๅฐฑๆฏChatGPTๆDeepseek๏ผไฝๆฏ้ไบๅ ฌๅธๆฏๅจAI้ๅญๅกไธ็ๆ้ ็ซฏ๏ผไนๅชไปฃ่กจไบAI็ฑๆฝฎ็ไธๅ้ๅธธๅฐ็้จๅใๆๅๅฏไปฅ็ไปฅไธ็ๅ๏ผ
่ท้กไธไธ๏ผๆไธ็ด้ฝ่ชช่ฝๆบๆฏๆชไพAIๅๅคงๆธๆ็ๅบ็ค๏ผๅ ็บ้พๅคง่่ค้็็ฎๅๆฏ้่ฆ่ฝๆบไพๆจๅ็ใ้ๅฐฑๆฏ็บไป้บผๆๅฐ้ปๅๅ ฌๅธ้ๅธธๆ่่ถฃใ้้ๅญๅกๆไฝไธๅฑคๅฐฑๆฏ่ณฃ้ๅญ็๏ผๅฎๅไธๆAI๏ผไฝๆฏๅจ่ๅพๆจๅAI็็ผๅฑใๅ ๅท1848-1855ๅนด็ๅ ๅทๆท้็ฑๅทฒๅ่จดๆๅ่ณบๆๅค้ข็ไธๆฏๆท้็๏ผ่ๆฏ่ณฃ้ๅญ็ใๆท้็ Open AI (ChatGPT) ๆDeepseekๆฏ่ขซไธ้ข5ๅฑค็่กๆฅญๆฏๆ็ใ็ถ็ถ๏ผๆๅไนๅฏไปฅ็ๅบๆไบๅ ฌๅธ็ๆฅญๅๅทฒ่ฆ่้้ๅญๅก็ๅฅฝๅนพๅฑค๏ผไพๅฆ่ฐทๆญๅๅพฎ่ปใ
็พๅจๆๅๅทฒ็ๆธ ไบๆดๅAIๅบๅปบๅๆฅญๅ๏ผๆๅๅฐฑๅฅ้้ปๅงใ
AI ๆณกๆฒซ
่ฑๅ้ๅAMDๅตๆฐ้ซ็ไบๅคงๅฎถ้ฝ็ฅ้๏ผๅๅ็งๆๅ ฌๅธ็่กๅน่ขซๆจๅฐ้ข่ญ็ๅนไฝไนๆฏ็พๆๅจ็ฅ๏ผ้่ฃกๆไนๅฐฑไธ้่คๅคงๅฎถๅทฒ็ฅ็ไบใ
ไบบ้กๆๆๅพ่ฐๆ๏ผๅถ็พไนๆๅพๆญทๅฒไธๅธๅๆ่จใๆท้็ฑๆๆไบๅคงๅฎถ๏ผ่ณฃ้ๅญๆฏๆท้่ณบ้ขใๆไปฅๅจ่กๅธไธ๏ผๅคงๅฎถ้ฝ่ทๅป่ฒท่ฑๅ้๏ผAMD้ไบ่ณฃ้ๅญ็ๅ ฌๅธ่ก็ฅจใไฝๆฏ้้ซไธๅฐบ๏ผ้ญ้ซไธไธใๆๅๅธๅ็ๆ่จ๏ผ่ณๆฌๅฎถ่ฝไธ็ฅ้ๅ๏ผ
AI็็ผๅฑ้่ฆๅคง้็็ ็ฉถ๏ผๆ้๏ผ็ฒพๅไปฅๅ้้ขใ่็ฎๅ๏ผOpenAI้ๅจ่ๆผ็้ข็้ๆฎตใ้๏ผ้ๆฒ่ขซๆทๅฐใ
ไฝๅณไพฟๅฆๆญค๏ผOpenAI ้ๆฏ่ฆบๅพๆๅฟ ่ฆ็นผ็บๆ่ณๅ ถไปๅ ฌๅธใๆๅ็็้ๅ็ฑๅฝญๅ็คพ็นชๅบ็้้ขๆตๅใ้ไธๆฏๆไบ่ชช็๏ผ่ๆฏ่ฅฟๆน็ฅๅๅ ฑ็คพ๏ผ่ชๅทฑๅ่ชๅทฑ็ใ
ๆฒๆ้ป้็่ฉฑๆ้บผ่พฆ๏ผ่ณฃ้ๅญ็ๆ่ณๆท้็๏ผๆท้็่ฑ้ขๅฑๅญๆฌ้็๏ผๆฌ้็ๆฟ้ข่ฒท้ๅญใไฝ ๅฏไปฅ็ๅฐ้ๅญๅๅฎถ่ฑๅ้ๅจ้ๅ็ไธญ้ใ
่ฑๅ้ๆ่ณOpenAI 1000ๅ๏ผOpenAI่ฑ3000ๅๅพ็ฒ้ชจๆ่ฒท็ฎๅ๏ผ่็ฒ้ชจๆ่ฝๆ่ฑๅนพ็พๅ่ฒท่ฑๅ้่ฏ็ไพๆไพ็ฎๅใๅฆๅ่ชช็นช๏ผ้ๅชๆฏไธๅๅฐๅใๅจๆดๅๅคง่ๅไธ๏ผ้้ๅ ไบ้กๅคๅนพๅๆๅๅ ฌๅธ็ๅๅญ๏ผไพๅฆๅพฎ่ปๅAMDใ้ๆไฝ่ๅ็่ฃฝ้ ๅบไธๅๅ้็ก้๏ผๆฌฃๆฌฃๅๆฆฎ็AI่กๆฅญ๏ผๅธๅผไบ็กๆธ็ๆฃๆถๅจ่กๅธไธๆ่ณ๏ผๆไบ้ไบๅคง่กๆฑ็ๆฅ็คไฟ ใ
ๆผ2025ๅนด7ๆ1ๆฅ๏ผ็ฒ้ชจๆCEO่ณฃๅบ250ๅ็่ก็ฅจ๏ผDell CEO ่ณฃๅบ12.2ๅ๏ผไบ้ฆฌ้CEO่ณฃๅบไบ7.37ๅ๏ผ่ฑๅ้้ ่จ่ณฃๅบ8.65ๅ๏ผๅทด่ฒ็นๅนพไนๅทฒๆธ ๅไบไธฆๅๅจ3250ๅ็็พ้ไธใ
็ขบๅฏฆ๏ผไธๆฏๆฏๅCEO้ฝๅคงๆธ ๅ๏ผไฝ้ฃๆฏๅ ็บไปฃ่กจ่ๅ ฌๅธ็ไปๅไธ่ฝ้ฃ้บผๅใไฝๆฏ้ฃ้บผๅค็งๆ็ๅคงไฝฌ็ด็ด็่ณฃๆไปๅๆไธ็่ก็ฅจ๏ผไธ่ฆบๅพไบๆ่น่นบๅ๏ผ้่ฝๆ่ชฐๆฏ้ไบCEOๆดไบ่งฃไปๅ่ชๅทฑ็ๅ ฌๅธ๏ผ่ฝๅไธ้ฃๅไฝๅญ็ไบบ๏ผ็ตไธๆฏ็ฌจ่ไนไธๆฏๅ่ฌใ่ฅไปๅ้ฝๆๅฎ่ก็ฅจ๏ผ้ๆ่ฉฒ่ฎๆๅ่ญฆๆ่ตทไพใ
็พๅจ้ๆๅพๅคๅ ฌๅธ้ฝๆผๅฝๅฐ่AIๆ้ค๏ผๅณไพฟไปๅ็ๆฅญๅๅAIๅฎๅ จไธ็ธๅนฒใ้็ถChatGPTๅSora็ตฆๅบไบ็ธๅฐไธ้ฏ็ๆ็ธพ๏ผไฝๆฏๅ่ขซ็็ฑ็้ ๆ็ธๆฏ๏ผ้็ธๅป็้ ใAI็ธฝๆไธๅคฉๆ้ๅฐๆๅ็้ ๆ๏ผไฝไธๆฏ็พๅจ๏ผ่็พๅจๆ่ณ้ไบๅ ฌๅธ็ๆฃๆถๆฏ็บไบๅคๅนดๅพ็้้ ้ ๆ่ฒทๅฎใๆฃๆถ็้ซๅนๆ่ณ๏ผไปฅๅ้ไบๅคงไผๆฅญไน้็ฐฝ็ๅๅ๏ผ้ ้ ่ถ ๅบ็พๅจๅธๅ ดๆ่ฝๅฏฆ็พ็่ฝๅใๅ่ชชไบ๏ผๅคงไผๆฅญไนๅ็ฐฝ็ๅๅ๏ผไธไน้ฝๆฏ็ดไธ่ซๅ ตๅ๏ผไธๅ้ข้ฝ้ๆฒๆไบคใ
AIๆณกๆฒซๅฟ ๅฎๆ็๏ผ่ไนๅณๅฐ็ไบใ็ถๆ้ผๅณ่ฑ็้ๆฒๅๆญขๆ๏ผไนๅฐฑๆฏ็พๅ่กๅธๅดฉๅก็ๆๅใ้ๆ๏ผๅฐๆๆฏๆๅ่ฝๆไฝ็ๅฆไธๅๆฉๆใ็พๅจ๏ผๆๅๅช้่ฆ่ๅฟ็็ญ๏ผๆฅตๅ็ๅปๅคๅฝ่ฅ๏ผๅฐๆๅๅทด่ฒ็นๅคงๅไธ่ตทๅปๆๅธ๏ผ็บ้ๅ็คพๆ็กๆๅไธไปฝ็ถฟ่ไนๅใ
็พๅ็้ขจๅฃ๏ผ่ฆๅบ็พไบใๆ่จฑๆ้้ป่ฑฌ๏ผไธไน ๅพๅ่ฝ้ฃ่ตทไพไบใ
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