In my last post, I talked about Goldman Sachs’ research report. The report indicated that the software sector was at the bottom of their list in terms of capital intensity. The report had good analysis and sound logic. But to some of us, one question inevitably come into mind: Why would Goldman Sachs be so nice to publish this report instead of capitalising it fully?
Goldman Sachs 2008 CDS Saga
The whole process is more complicated than what I am going to explain here, but for the sake of my readers I am just going to simplify it greatly.
In very simple terms, through credit default swap (CDS), Goldman Sachs profited greatly by betting against the subprime mortgage-backed securities and negotiating CDS deals for clients like Michael Burry. What this means is that Goldman Sachs betted that homeowners would not be able to pay their mortgage and also helped clients to do the same, thereby making another round of profits. When the bubble finally burst, Goldman Sachs and clients like Michael Burry profited greatly.

History Repeats Itself Somewhat
History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
On 24 February 2026, Goldman Sachs published a research report hinting that the software sector is a goner. And last week, news has circulated that Goldman Sachs has begun offering clients products known as total return swaps, derivatives that would enable investors to profit if loan prices decline. More specifically and in simple terms, Goldman Sachs is rounding up clients who will bet that software companies will default on their loans.
From houses to IT, from homeowners to software companies, from credit default swaps to total return swaps, everything is just but a change in name and form. The underlying mechanism is still the same.

Question
Now that we know this, how can we take steps to profit from it? I will not answer this question. Readers can ask ChatGPT or whatever AI model you like.
ๅจๆไธไธๅ่ฒผๅญ๏ผๆ่ไบ้ซ็็็ ็ฉถๅ ฑๅใๅ ฑๅๆๅบ่ปไปถ่กๆฅญๆฏ้ซ็ๆ่กๆฆไธญ่ณ้ๅฏ้ๅบฆๆไฝ็่กๆฅญใๅ ฑๅๅๆ็ๅพๅฅฝ๏ผ้่ผฏๆธ ๆฐใไฝไธๅฎๆๆไบบๆณ๏ผ้ซ็็บไป้บผไธ่ชๅทฑๅฉ็จ้ไปฝไฟกๆฏ๏ผๅ่ๅ ฌ้่็พ๏ผ
้ซ็2008ๅนดไฟก็จ้็ดไบๆไบไปถ
ๆดๅ้็จๆฏๆฏ่ผ่ค้็๏ผไฝ้่ฃกๆๅฐฑ้ๅธธ็ฐกๅฎ็่ฌ่งฃใ
็ฐกๅฎ่ชช๏ผ้้ไฟก็จ้็ดไบๆ (CDS)๏ผ้ซ็ไธๆน้ขๅคงๅๅ็ฉบๆฌก็ดๆตๆผ่ฒธๆฌพๆฏๆ่ญๅธ๏ผๅฆไธๆน้ขๅๅนซๅ้บฅๅ .่ฒ็้ๆจฃ็ๅฎขๆถๅฎๆ CDS ไบคๆใ่ชช็ฝไบๅฐฑๆฏ๏ผ้ซ็่ณญๅฑไธปๆฒ่ฝๅๅ้ๆฟ่ฒธ๏ผไนๆไบไธ็พคไบบๅไปไธ่ตท่ณญ๏ผๅพ่็ฒๅฉ็ฌฌไบๆฌกใ็ถๆฌก่ฒธๅฑๆฉ็้็ๆๅ๏ผ้ซ็ๅไปๅ็ๅฎขๆถ้ฝๅคงๅคง็ฒๅฉใ
ๆญทๅฒ็ธฝๆฏ็ธไผผ็้่ค
ๆญทๅฒไธๆ็ฐกๅฎ็้่ค๏ผไฝๆ้ฉไบบ็็ธไผผใ
2026ๅนด2ๆ24ๆฅ๏ผ้ซ็็ผ่กจไบไธๅๆ็คบ่ปไปถ่กๆฅญ่ฆๅฎ่็ๅ ฑๅใ่ไธๅๆๆ๏ผๅทฒๆๆถๆฏๅณๅบ๏ผ้ซ็ๅทฒๅจ็บๅฎขๆถๆไพไธไบๅซโ็ธฝๆถ็ไบๆโ็่ก็ๅ๏ผ่ฝ่ฎๆ่ณ่ ๅจ่ฒธๆฌพๅนๆ ผไธ่ทๆ็ฒๅฉใๅไปฅ็ฐกๅฎๅๆดๆบ็ขบ็่ชชๆณ่งฃ้๏ผ้ซ็ๆญฃๅจๆพ้กๆ่ณญ่ปไปถๅ ฌๅธๅ้ไธไบ่ฒธๆฌพ็ๅฎขๆถใ
ๅพๆฟๅฑๅฐ่ปไปถ๏ผๅฑไธปๅฐๅ ฌๅธ๏ผๅพไฟก็จ้็ดไบๆๅฐ็ธฝๆถ็ไบๆ๏ผไธๅไธ้ๆฏไปฅไธๅๅๅญๅๅฝขๆ ๅ็พๅบไพ็ฝทไบใๅบๅฑค็ๆไฝ้ๆฏไธๆจฃ็ใ
ๅ้ก
็พๅจๆๅ็ฅ้้ไปฝๆถๆฏ๏ผๆๅ่ฝๆ้บผ็ฒๅฉๅข๏ผ้ๅ้กๆไธๅ็ญใ่ฎ่ ๅฏไปฅ่ชๅทฑๅ่ฑๅ ๆ่ชๅทฑๅๆญก็AI่ปไปถใ


